Dems cross the Valley of Redistricting, build your own Senate model, next steps for the realignment, another Midwest polling ...

Echelon Insights’s 2026 Political Tribes came out yesterday. Built on answers to questions about social issues, economic issues, and trust in institutions, the tribes have been updated for 2026. The ...

It’s notable that California Democrats are going to extra-constitutional lengths to gerrymander the state when the party nationally has gotten substantially better at redistricting. The pro-Republican ...

Current polling looks good for Democrats in many red states they’d need to flip control of the chamber. That includes a recent Fox News poll that puts Sherrod Brown up 8 in the Ohio Senate race or a ...

A few post-election interviews, focusing on my book, Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP, and how it explained much of what we saw last Tuesday. And you can ...

We are in a media moment where the idea of a “MAGA crackup” is riding high. This was the focus of my podcast with Galen Druke this week, and it figures heavily in my conversation with Ben Domenech in ...

If you’ve ever watched a BBC election broadcast, you’ve seen its legendary Swingometer, moving the dial until one party or the other took control of Parliament. It tried to answer a simple question: ...

This chart from the March Wall Street Journal /NORC poll was destined to go viral. It shows that the values we think of as defining America—patriotism, having children, religion, community, ...

It is cliché by now to say that the country is polarized. Despite the predictable nature of the polarization discourse, there’s strong empirical evidence for the underlying trend. You may have seen ...

When a party loses a presidential election, this prompts a period of introspection about what went wrong and forces the party to confront weaknesses swept under the rug during the campaign. For the ...

Welcome’s Deciding to Win report charting a common-sense centrist approach for Democrats came out this week. And I was happy to blurb it, writing, “If Democrats actually followed the guidance in ...

The ground truth of electoral analysis is the voter file. We obsess over county and precinct results, since these are readily available in the days and weeks after the election, but individual vote ...