Since Apple doesn’t give out preliminary sales figures, analysts use a number of measures to estimate how sales are going. According to TF International Securities, Apple sold 37 million iPhone 16s in the first weekend of pre-sales, which was a 12 percent drop from the iPhone 15 debut in 2023.

Apple stock (NASDAQ: AAPL) has remained largely flat over the past month, underperforming the Nasdaq-100, which gained about 4% in the same period.

Apple had been counting on new artificial intelligence features to make the iPhone 16 a major hit. But pre–sale estimates point to a more muted early response than Apple had hoped.